Location based Services and Augmented Reality are and will be the hyping technologies for the near future. Its time to revise a little what already happened and to wildly speculate of where the journey is going.
First I want to make clear, what is meant by location based, because it needs to be said explicitely: it means that your location is registered, and the longitude and latitude of your current position are sent to the web and depending on which service you use, your position is further processed. I know its probably clear to everyone what I just wrote, but I did so because I and want you to consider for a moment, what that actually means, taking all the privacy issues into account.
Ok, so now that you know that everybody might see your location online on Google Maps, let us continue with the actual article :-).
Location based Services come in a huge variety of flavours, some guide you to the nearest italian restaurants, including a rating of it, others display the nearest tweets that have just been typed into Twitter and again others implement some kind of gaming and social networking features (Hi Four Square). Basically its the same, you, as the user, are in focus of whats going on around you. Also the technology doesn't really matter, but what matters is the application of it.
It was only until I checked out Google's Latitude that I completely and totally recognised what consequences occur, when you publish your location or let your location be processed by any service. Latitude probably is the most useless of all location based services (useless in the sense of the benefit you have from it - compared to apps like AroundMe or Eventful - except when you are a professional stalker), it is simply displaying your current location as a nice blue dot in Google Maps. Also, if your friends are online, you can check out their location as well.
When I first saw the dots of my friends, some where at work, some where at home, some where relaxing in a park, I only realised the full meaning of publishing your location. If you think that sounds like the words of a completely paranoid idiot, then try it out for yourself! It does indeed feel a little touchy when you know that you can be watched by others (Imagine seeing the dot of a friend of yours being at home and seeing on Facebook his or her newest Mafia Wars or FarmVille updates, you pretty much exactly know, what he or she is doing and also where).
Of course this goes on, Google is not really known as a company that doesn't care about valuable data, meaning that your positions are pretty likely to be tracked and stored in your profile, so if you've been twice to a chinese restaurant, Google might advertise you with a suggestion to try a similiar restaurant, only a few streets away from your home. So this leads us straight to the next point: location based advertising.
I've read an article (see TechCrunch article on a start-up raising $5Mio VC and a Digital Beat article on one of Googles newest patents) a few weeks ago, saying that location based advertising is probably one of the next big things (meaning that such start-ups are pretty likely to raise millions of VC funding and will be eventually bought by one of the big players). Think of starting any iPhone App that is supported by ads and these ads are about stuff you can buy in shops just around the corner. So this IS definetely an interesting thing. Now you might ignore any ads that come with your iPhone Apps, but when it says that you get a special deal just around the corner and probably you can even use that ad as a voucher to get another discount, many people will be tempted to do just that.
Taking all this location based stuff one step further would lead us to location and TIME based everything. It would be useless to be advertised at 1am for a nice discount at the next H & M, when you can't really make any use of it at that time, so perhaps it would be better to be directed to the next Bar or Club where you get free entry or a free drink.
Additionally to your local time, your current position will be mapped more accurately ("interpreted"), its nice to know that your latitude is 48.15678 and your longitude 16.22456 and that the Bar that you are seeking has latitude 48.15200 and longitude 16.22978, but its better to know that you are in Main Street 3 and the Bar you are seeking is in Main Street 34. By the way such a reverse GeoLookup functionality is already available in the Google Maps API and is astonishingly accurate (and easy to implement) as a friend of mine demonstrated to me (thx M.).
To again take this a step further, it would be fantastic to know the kind of your current address. Is it a Public Building? Or is it a University? Or is it probably an Office Building? With StreetView and Maps and Google Earth, Google already has the Tools to map the meaning or content of a building onto its address and its Geo location.
This now, is not only interesting for any Augmented Reality Apps, but also for Google's Search itself. A few days ago I was googling for "Levante" and meant the restaurant not far away from my office. To my surprise, the restaurant really was the first entry in the result list. I had rather suspected that the first entry will be the Wikipedia article or any other article on the geographical and historical meaning of Levante.
Why this observation is not useless? Well, first, because it is a restaurant just AROUND ME, which means near my current location. Second, it was araound 11:30am, so definetly time to think about where to spend the lunchbreak. And third, because I was in an Office Building. So with these 3 things added, current location, local time, and "interpreted" position, the odds where near 100% that I was looking for the restaurant and not for the Wikipedia Article on the historical and geographical details of it. If it would have been around 9am and my interpreted location would have been a University with the next Levante restaurant more than 5 miles away, then the odds would have been near 100% that I would not have been looking for the restaurant.
So if any location and time based App or the Google Search Engine, take all that into account, along with a personal profile of you, with all your previous searches and activities it gets quite clear why 1), Googles Chief Economist Hal Varian, called the Job of a Statistician as the "sexiest" Job for the next years (see the NY Times article) and 2) There might approach the day where all Apps are not one step behind you, in suggesting ads and stuff to you, but one step ahead of you.
I think it will be quite near in the future that Google is really implementing all these things into their search engine (what would mean an iGoogle for everybody, if you want or not; see the Wired article for how mighty Googles search algorithm already is, and how they are constantly improving it) and that also any Augmented Reality and Location based Services will be implementing everything into their applications.
I already mentioned some of my privacy concerns at the beginning of the article, but that was just about location, but taken, time, interpreted location and personal-history, into account the privacy issue is yet taken to another level, but which I am not going to discuss in this article (maybe in another one called "1985"....but wait....thats already the title of book by Anthony Burgess, so I'd perhaps take 1984^2). Its up to you to consider the pros and cons of it!
Friday, March 19, 2010
Saturday, February 13, 2010
Social Network O.V.R.KILL
Google Buzz - yet another "Social Network". I think with Google's next attempt to get into the Social Networking Business (they already have Orkut, which isn't used anywhere but Brazil), it is now time to revise the rise of Social Networks and to review the jungle of different kinds of communities, networks and forums that is existing now.
Social Networking is one of the new in-words that were introduced along with the Web 2.0 hype, but Social Networks are nothing really new, although it is nowadays associated with Facebook or Twitter. Long before Facebook and MySpace a lot of Dating and Flirting Services were Online that are quite similiar to Facebook, with the difference that these Service had no additional value, they were merely for the Friendships sake but Facebook or MySpace made it to create that additional benefit to keep Users returning to their service.
Many Forums where in the beginning equal to the pin board of Facebook, with the difference that there was only 1 public pin board ordered by topic. A lot of Forums then, tried to morph themselves into a Social Network, so what they did was keeping everything they already had and added the possibility for their Users to create a profile. The additional value they have or had and what distinguishes them is, that they are already specialised in one particular field of interest of subject. So when, from a real-life point of view, Facebook is the Cafeteria of a College, then these Forums build the different Clubs and Societies within a College.
One of the most popular Social Networking Forums, that recognised that a Forum is mainly about content and not about socialising, is the service Digg. With Digg, you can mark content ("digg it") that is then collected on their Host Page and categorised in the different subjects.
So we can summarise so far, that with the hype of the term Social Network, every Forum, Dating-Page and whatever else, redefined itself as a Social Network. That of course, led to the jungle and overkill that we now have. There are seemingly an eternal number of Networks, starting from the classics as Facebook over Business Networks like LinkedIn and Xing to content sharing or (micro-)blogging services as Digg, Yelp, Twitter or FriendFeed (bought by Facebook).
But whats the motivation of all this? Obviously the User Data, which are a fantastic business, although it is not (yet) really profitable. Look at YouTube or Facebook, each of them has an estimated value of more than a billion $, but both are struggling to be profitable. They are trying to refinance them a little over User-directed ads but that doesn't work too good, because the online-ad business is to "pay-per-click", so when you don't click on an ad on Facebook, Mark Zuckerberg gets nothing. So why are they so high rated? Because they have the Users content, which includes personal data such as birthdate and address as well as hobbies. These are things that have an enormous value, to this adds, that nowadays everybody is using Facebook and others on iPhones and Android Phones, that these services know your current location. New trends like location-based-advertising and other "augmented-reality" services are arising because of this. I once heard an interview with Tim O'Reilly who was saying that: "One day we will find out that we are living in the world of Big Brother, and that we will actually like it". Of course it was meant ironically, but somehow he is exactly right.
But how does Google Buzz fit into that picture? Well, Google is trying to create a community or a Social Network since quite a while, as already mentioned with Orkut. Google also is the major player when it comes to Online Advertising and Searching. But their goal obviously is, to create a more complete profile of a person as any other service could do. They are trying to link your Soft-Data (=your current interests), such as Tweets on Twitter (which can be integrated to Buzz) or searches on Google, to your Hard-Data which are the data that identify you (name, birthdate, address,...). Along with services like Google Maps they can create quite an exact profile of YOU as a human being and YOUR present behaviour and location.
To get back to our College analogy, I gave Buzz a quick look, and, I have to admit, was not really impressed. But being on Buzz created an awkward feeling, because it is integrated into your Gmail account. So when Facebook is the College Cafeteria, any Nerd-Forum is your College Chess-Club, then Buzz is somehow looking over your shoulder in your private room. That's how it feels when I see Buzz right under my inbox. Somehow it feels that writing a mail is not a private thing anymore, but you have someone who is looking over your shoulder, or to formulate it more paranoid "...is watching you".
So privacy is not existent on the Web anymore - that is already general knowledge - but Google takes it with Buzz to another Level. I also wouldn't be surprised if Buzz is going to be the first Social Network that fully integrates all other popular services into it. Having a single point from where you can Blog, Tweet, write on your buddies Facebook pin-board or share YouTube Videos, is probably a Key-Factor to success.
Whatever the future of Social Networks will be, sooner or later there will be a wild consolidation of different services and sooner or later there will be 1 service from which you can control all others and collect all the data you spread over the Web to 1 place. The funny thing on it is that we will see it as no threat but as "finally a service that serves all my individual needs". Got it? I think Tim O'Reilly was right.
Social Networking is one of the new in-words that were introduced along with the Web 2.0 hype, but Social Networks are nothing really new, although it is nowadays associated with Facebook or Twitter. Long before Facebook and MySpace a lot of Dating and Flirting Services were Online that are quite similiar to Facebook, with the difference that these Service had no additional value, they were merely for the Friendships sake but Facebook or MySpace made it to create that additional benefit to keep Users returning to their service.
Many Forums where in the beginning equal to the pin board of Facebook, with the difference that there was only 1 public pin board ordered by topic. A lot of Forums then, tried to morph themselves into a Social Network, so what they did was keeping everything they already had and added the possibility for their Users to create a profile. The additional value they have or had and what distinguishes them is, that they are already specialised in one particular field of interest of subject. So when, from a real-life point of view, Facebook is the Cafeteria of a College, then these Forums build the different Clubs and Societies within a College.
One of the most popular Social Networking Forums, that recognised that a Forum is mainly about content and not about socialising, is the service Digg. With Digg, you can mark content ("digg it") that is then collected on their Host Page and categorised in the different subjects.
So we can summarise so far, that with the hype of the term Social Network, every Forum, Dating-Page and whatever else, redefined itself as a Social Network. That of course, led to the jungle and overkill that we now have. There are seemingly an eternal number of Networks, starting from the classics as Facebook over Business Networks like LinkedIn and Xing to content sharing or (micro-)blogging services as Digg, Yelp, Twitter or FriendFeed (bought by Facebook).
But whats the motivation of all this? Obviously the User Data, which are a fantastic business, although it is not (yet) really profitable. Look at YouTube or Facebook, each of them has an estimated value of more than a billion $, but both are struggling to be profitable. They are trying to refinance them a little over User-directed ads but that doesn't work too good, because the online-ad business is to "pay-per-click", so when you don't click on an ad on Facebook, Mark Zuckerberg gets nothing. So why are they so high rated? Because they have the Users content, which includes personal data such as birthdate and address as well as hobbies. These are things that have an enormous value, to this adds, that nowadays everybody is using Facebook and others on iPhones and Android Phones, that these services know your current location. New trends like location-based-advertising and other "augmented-reality" services are arising because of this. I once heard an interview with Tim O'Reilly who was saying that: "One day we will find out that we are living in the world of Big Brother, and that we will actually like it". Of course it was meant ironically, but somehow he is exactly right.
But how does Google Buzz fit into that picture? Well, Google is trying to create a community or a Social Network since quite a while, as already mentioned with Orkut. Google also is the major player when it comes to Online Advertising and Searching. But their goal obviously is, to create a more complete profile of a person as any other service could do. They are trying to link your Soft-Data (=your current interests), such as Tweets on Twitter (which can be integrated to Buzz) or searches on Google, to your Hard-Data which are the data that identify you (name, birthdate, address,...). Along with services like Google Maps they can create quite an exact profile of YOU as a human being and YOUR present behaviour and location.
To get back to our College analogy, I gave Buzz a quick look, and, I have to admit, was not really impressed. But being on Buzz created an awkward feeling, because it is integrated into your Gmail account. So when Facebook is the College Cafeteria, any Nerd-Forum is your College Chess-Club, then Buzz is somehow looking over your shoulder in your private room. That's how it feels when I see Buzz right under my inbox. Somehow it feels that writing a mail is not a private thing anymore, but you have someone who is looking over your shoulder, or to formulate it more paranoid "...is watching you".
So privacy is not existent on the Web anymore - that is already general knowledge - but Google takes it with Buzz to another Level. I also wouldn't be surprised if Buzz is going to be the first Social Network that fully integrates all other popular services into it. Having a single point from where you can Blog, Tweet, write on your buddies Facebook pin-board or share YouTube Videos, is probably a Key-Factor to success.
Whatever the future of Social Networks will be, sooner or later there will be a wild consolidation of different services and sooner or later there will be 1 service from which you can control all others and collect all the data you spread over the Web to 1 place. The funny thing on it is that we will see it as no threat but as "finally a service that serves all my individual needs". Got it? I think Tim O'Reilly was right.
Sunday, January 31, 2010
Geek Literature
Maybe this is one of my most important posts ever. Literature for Geeks and Nerds. Wonderful books (books are those things made out of dead trees in case you forgot) on wonderful geeky topics. This list, of course, doesn't claim to be complete. I am sure I forgot some books, so I encourage the reader to add those books in the comment section (hey, I want some book recommendations as well). The range of the genres, however, will not only involve Sci-Fi stuff, but also some books on SW Engineering, Economics and, oh yes, oh yes, Computer Science with all that nice theory stuff like NP-Completeness and Cellular Automatons.
The books are in no particular order, they are written down in the order they entered my mind, so there's no grouping of books and using prime numbers as accessor keys :-)
Cheerio
The books are in no particular order, they are written down in the order they entered my mind, so there's no grouping of books and using prime numbers as accessor keys :-)
- Douglas Adams - The Hitchhikers Guide through the Galaxy
- No further description
- Lewis Carroll - Alice in Wonderland
- Yes, this is a must-read as well
- Robert A. Wilson - Illuminatus trilogy
- Hey, what if not the Illuminatus trilogy is made for nerds
- Robert A. Wilson - Schrödingers Cat
- About an author who's name is Robert A. Wilson and who writes a book named "Schrödingers Cat". Go on Strange Loop
- Edgar Allen Poe - The Gold Bug (Short Story)
- The classical crypto Story, one of the best crypto stories ever
- Umberto Eco - Foucault's Pendulum
- Simpliy fantastic
- Isaac Asimov - The Complete Robot
- You didn't yet read the robot stories? - SHAME ON YOU!!!!
- Isaac Asimov - Complete Foundation
- Hal Varian (Google's Chief Economist) said that this book made him study Economics
- William Gibson - Neuromancer
- Mona Lisa Overdrive and other classics
- Neal Stephenson - Cryptonomicon
- The most extensive book about Enigma and modern Cryptology, packed into a superb Thriller
- Neal Stephenson - Snow Crash
- Living in the Metaverse
- Neal Stephenson - Diamond Age
- Every story where there is a Nanoscientist in it, is a must read
- Neal Stephenson - Quicksilver (Part 1 of the Baroque Circle)
- 17th Century England, featuring Isaac Newton, Gottfried Wilhelm Leibnitz,...
- Neal Stephenson - The Confusion (Part 2 of the Baroque Circle)
- The story continues...
- Neal Stephenson - The System of the World (Part 3 and final part of the Baroque Circle)
- ...and finally ends in that fantastic book
- Neal Stephenson - Anathem
- Futuristic, fantastic, incredible
- Simon Singh - The Code Book
- The history of Cryptology from the ancient to RSA and Quantums
- Douglas R. Hofstaedter - Gödel, Escher, Bach - an Eternal Golden Braid
- S T R A N G E L O O P S (That is Hofstaedters description)
- Ray Kurzweil - The Age of spiritual Machines
- The godfather of AI
- Ray Kurzweil - The Singularity is near
- The godfather of AI 2
- Fred Brooks - The mythical man-month
- Essays on the human side of Software Engineering - so true
- George Orwell - 1984
- Everybody needs some more paranoia
- A.K. Dewdney - The new Turing Omnibus
- The Basics of Computer Science
- Chris Anderson - Free
- Economics in the Information Age
- Chris Anderson - The long tail
- How is inifinite shelf-space, democratisation of tools of production, democratisation of tools of distribution and powerful search-tools changing the World?
- Geoffrey Moore - Crossing the Chasm
- When you are somehow in the SW-Industry - this is an absolute MUST READ to understand the industry
- Stephen Wolfram - A new kind of Science
- An absolute classic
- Paul Graham - Hackers and Painters - Big ideas from the Computer Age
- He made predictions several years ago that now turn out to be completely true - fantastic book
- Steven Levy - Hackers: Heroes of the Computer Revolution
- Probably the most important book for hackers, geeks and other creatures of the night ever
- John Markoff - What the doormouse said
- Feed your head, feed your heeeaaaaaaddd
- Konrad Zuse - The Computer
- The invention of the holy grail
- Rolf Hochhut - Alan Turing
- Biography in story form of the NP - Complete man himself
- Philip K. Dick - Blade Runner (aka Do Androids dream of electric sheep)
- The classic - am I human or mechanic question that keeps my head asking my brain every day??
- Simon Singh - Fermats last Theorem
- The mathematical offering of Mr. Andrew Wiles
- David Kahn - The Codebreakers
- The overall crypto-classic-bible
- Andrew Hodges - Alan Turing: The Enigma
- How the Bomb cracked the riddle
- Robert Harris - Enigma
- The story behind the deciphering
- John Graham Cumming - The Geek Atlas
- Already booked your next holiday?
- Thomas Pynchon - Against the Day
- Pynchons books cannot be described using ordinary language - one has to invent words which have to be described using a meta-inventory of rules which needs further be described by a meta-meta-inventory until your head implodes.
Cheerio
Wednesday, January 20, 2010
HowTo: use a Mac as Wi-Fi Hotspot
Have you ever worried how to crack your neighbors WPA2 Key to gain access to his Wi-Fi? If you are the owner of an Apple Computer and you have cable Internet or a 3G mobile Internet at home, you have no more need to spend your valuable time in trying to hack a WPA2 Key.
Note in advance:
Note in advance:
- This tutorial has been tested with a MacBook using Snow Leopard.
- After setting up the Wi-Fi Network I connected my iPhone and a another Windows XP Notebook to it, what worked fine for both.
- I am quite sure you can do the same with Windows and Linux, but I didn't try it as it worked so smooth with the Mac.
- Navigate to the Sharing Tab in your Mac's System Preferences
- Select the Internet Sharing Option (last but one in the list) - don't activate yet - and set the options, "Share your connection from" to "Ethernet" (for both, mobile 3G Internet devices (except it is listed explicitely) and cable) and the option "To computers using" to "AirPort" (marks that the outgoing Signal is Wi-Fi)
- Click the Button "AirPort Options" to define a name and a password (hey, your neighbor isn't sharing his Wi-Fi with you either)
- Now activate the Internet Sharing Option and click "Start" in the upcoming Dialog
- The magic is done, your Mac is now a Wi-Fi Hotspot and you can connect other (Apple) devices to it
- To share the magic with your Windows PC there are some further steps necessary. First Open your Internet Sharing again (Step 3) and set up the Security to a WEP 128 Bits Key. Important Hint: Enter a password with exactly 13 Alphanumeric characters if you can't establish a connection with your Windows PC.
- Then turn on your Internet Sharing again to transform your Mac into a Hotspot again (Step 4). Now lets set up the Windows side of life. I am still using Windows XP, so this is what the Screenshots are about. In Windows Navigate to the Wireless Network settings and try to connect to your Mac Hotspot which is displayed in the Available Network List. Also note that I changed my Wi-Fi Name from the passive aggressive "NoAccessForYou" to the simple "MacBook" ;-)
- Right-Click on the Wireless Network Entry and select Properties. On the upcoming Dialog choose the Tab Wireless Networks and in the frame Preferred Networks, click add. No it comes down to set up the Wi-Fi according to the Settings with which you set up the Mac Host Network. Enter the Name you have given the Wi-Fi Network on your Mac, select "Shared" for the Network Authentication, "WEP" for Data Encryption and enter the Password you defined on the Mac. De-select the checkbox that the Key is provided automatically. Then press Ok.
- Now the "MacBook" Network (the Name I gave the Wi-Fi on my Mac) is set up as a preferred Network, press OK again and navigate back to the Wireless Network Connections. When everything is set up correctly, your Windows Computer should already have started to connect to the "MacBook" Network.
- Finally enjoy your new Home Network :-)
- Things with Linux (Note: This example has been done on openSUSE 11.2) are about the same as with Windows. We'll shortly revise our Mac's Host Settings: Internet Sharing enabled with a 40/128 Bit WEP Security enabled Key (See steps 2 - 4). Important Hint: Again the Password, with 40 Bit must consist of 5, 10 or 13 alphanumeric characters, with 128 Bit I only tested the 13 character variant. The reason for this is restrictions on Windows and Linux are, that you are trying to connect devices running different operating Systems.
- On the openSUSE Tasklist, select the Network Connection, where you should see your Network. Select your Entry where the Authentication Window should pop up. There, select WEP 40/128 Bit Key Security, enter the Key and, important, select "Shared Key" as Authentication.
- Finally the magic is really done, you now have a Mac as Hotspot and Internet Connection and you can connect all your devices like a Windows PC, a Linux Notebook, your iPhone and your iPod Touch to it
- ENJOY
Monday, January 18, 2010
The Unix Inheritance
This Post is about nothing else as the future of Operating Systems. Heavy announcement, I know ;-). But with the rise of the Cloud and the new fashionate term "Software-as-a-Service", we are at the beginning of a fundamental change of technology.
Further I will discuss the big 3 Players in the Operating System World, Microsoft Windows, Apple Mac OS, Linux and the dawn of Chrome OS, including the advantages of the Cloud itself and probably a small view on what applications are going to be important with the rise of the Cloud (That word already lost all its sense to me...)
The Big 3 starting with Microsoft, who is in an interesting Position. They are the clear market leader in the Operating System market and will probably stay the leader for quite a while, but they will inevitably lose some of their market share to competitors. Why that? Because the Windows System IS so popular, so wide spread and that for such a long time. The same, by the way, is true for Windows Mobile as well. Windows is carrying such a huge backpack with legacy code and backwards compatibility. The problem for them is, they cannot just start something new. They cannot tear down everything and make a brand new start. Just think if Microsoft announces that their new Operating System Windows 8 will not be backwards compatible with any of the older Versions (not Win 7, not Win Vista and not Win XP). What will happen? Their stock price will drop quite close to 0 overnight if they make such an official announcement. They are bound to their customers, not so much to private users, but to all the Companies that have Windows running (and thats quite a few).
The development of the Windows Azure Wave will probably bring some fresh wind into Windows (gosh, am I poetic...). Windows Azure Wave seems to be a tackle to Googles Chrome OS, as Microsoft announced that it will be more or less their Cloud OS for which applications can be programmable using the .NET platform. What Microsoft, in my humble opinion, has to do with Azure is, integrating into Windows as soon as possible and as good and smooth as possible. I don't think that it will be a good way to place Azure Wave as an own product next to Windows. The goal must be to merge them into one System within the next, lets say 3, full Windows Releases.
Due to the fact that more and more applications will take their way to the cloud (with the obvious advantages of being everywhere available and the obvious disadvantage of having your secret data lying on some Serverfarm somewhere nowhere), Windows will inevitably loose market share, unless they are doing the right things with the Azure Wave. They will suffer from the biggest losses on the private consumer side. More and more people will start buying Netbooks with Chrome OS or a Linux Distro. Companies will stay on Windows, what may lead Microsoft to meet the IBM destiny.
Apple, I think, won't suffer too much from Cloud Operating Systems too much. Macs and Macbooks are the premium-product class and I don't think Apple will do much to participate in lower cost classes with their Desktop - PCs and their Notebooks. Apple also has the advantage that they are more an end-user product, There are hardly any Companies that are using Mac OS as their main Operating System. But Apple also has to be careful with radical changes, as their products are, thanks to iPod and iPhone, quite widespread now and now also technically unsavier Users are now using Apples products.
Linux, my dear child, Linux, how are we all hoping for your rise and how are we all knowing that your rise, at least on desktop PCs and Notebooks, will never take really place. Their are many reasons for that and I will discuss some of them. I don't know where to start, so all reasons are in no particular order. First some words pro Linux: I like Linux, I have openSUSE running on one partition of my Notebook, and yes I admit, I really, really like it. It's great for Techies like me, you can do almost everything on a Linux System and I simply like using the mighty, mighty Shell.
Alright now to the dark side of the moon. There are countless different distributions that are offering Linux. Why that? There's only ONE company that is offering Windows and there is only ONE company that is offering Mac OS, but there are 124 that are offering Linux. How will a normal User who only wants to surf the Web, write Mails and do some scribble-scrabble in Spreadsheets and Documents know what to choose? That leads me direct to the next 2 points: There is no real Office Package standard in the Distros. OpenOffice more or less is a standard and also should be the ONE AND ONLY standard, but there is still the old stuff from the 2 different desktop engines on every Distro. Why?? Who needs 3 different Word Processors??
And wait, did I say 2 desktop engines? You have KDE and Gnome and you can choose between them. Its fun for people like me, weighing up the now not existent differences and then choosing one (I chose Gnome by the way, because it was simply cooler looking and faster at the time I set up my Linux). Hey, most normal Users don't even know what a damn desktop engine is, so why let them choose? That's useless, they are only confused. Next thing marketing. Why would ever any standard User install a different OS from that, that is running? Hey Mr. Shuttleworth and Mr. Novell CEO, if you really want to spread your Linux Distros, make some deals with those guys that build the PC's as Microsoft is doing. It's a really effective way to force Users to their luck.
The final problem is probably that the slim and fast Linux Kernel is nowadays a huge, ugly and unmaintainable Moloch. There's another problem, too many people who were working on Linux since the 80s are still leading the Development and still working on Linux with the same Tools and the same attitude, but hey, the world changed. Those guys did a fantastic job and Linux wouldn't be Linux without them, but they simply need to let it go. Linux hasn't so many Users, so there is the chance to make a complete new start without causing too many problems.
Now to Chrome OS. I said it before, and I say it again, announcing an OS is NOT innovative but I think Google will make a fantastic job on Chrome OS. Every day I am more convinced that this is going to be the perfect merging between the Web and the Desktop. Do you know why there is yet no G-Drive Online Storage from Google? Although Microsoft has its 25GB Windows Sky Drive and countless other Companies are offering Online Storage (including some really cool ones like Dropbox). G-Drive will be an essential part of and fully integrated into Chrome OS. Local storage no longer required. Everything else would make no sense.
I believe that Google is fundamentally changing the way Computers and the Web is used. Google won't take much market share from Apple, as Chrome OS is probably aimed at Netbooks, but they will steal Microsoft a part of their cake. The cool thing is, that every service Google offers is - of course - a potential Chrome OS Application. You are having your Desktop in the Web then, with a nice integration of all the Twitters and Facebooks we all like to use. No more Browser required (sorry Mozilla, but I still like you and will keep you on Mac OS). I know I sound like a cheap advertiser of Chrome OS (which I am not, otherwise I wouldn't write a Blog that no one is reading), but with Chrome OS the Desktop and the Web will be one and the same things, the borders between them are not recognisable any longer.
So to end this pretty long Post, what cool stuff will we have running in the Cloud? First, when I store my stuff in the Cloud, I want it to be safe, so Crypto Services will be essential (I hope Chrome will have that). The automatically integrated Crypto Service needs obviously be fast and safe. Next, I want to stream my music and my videos direct onto my mobile devices or my other Notebooks and PCs I use. So, there's already a service (currently invitation-only) put.io which seems to be a really hot thing. When you have only Apps on a device that is Online all the time (like the iPhone), there will be many other changes, where (useful) location based (Notebook-)Services will only be the beginning.
Final word, if you wonder why this Post is named, "The Unix Inheritance", I have to answer that I wanted to write about something entirely different first, but kept the Robert Ludlum like title (the title is still true in a broader sense, though) ;-)
Further I will discuss the big 3 Players in the Operating System World, Microsoft Windows, Apple Mac OS, Linux and the dawn of Chrome OS, including the advantages of the Cloud itself and probably a small view on what applications are going to be important with the rise of the Cloud (That word already lost all its sense to me...)
The Big 3 starting with Microsoft, who is in an interesting Position. They are the clear market leader in the Operating System market and will probably stay the leader for quite a while, but they will inevitably lose some of their market share to competitors. Why that? Because the Windows System IS so popular, so wide spread and that for such a long time. The same, by the way, is true for Windows Mobile as well. Windows is carrying such a huge backpack with legacy code and backwards compatibility. The problem for them is, they cannot just start something new. They cannot tear down everything and make a brand new start. Just think if Microsoft announces that their new Operating System Windows 8 will not be backwards compatible with any of the older Versions (not Win 7, not Win Vista and not Win XP). What will happen? Their stock price will drop quite close to 0 overnight if they make such an official announcement. They are bound to their customers, not so much to private users, but to all the Companies that have Windows running (and thats quite a few).
The development of the Windows Azure Wave will probably bring some fresh wind into Windows (gosh, am I poetic...). Windows Azure Wave seems to be a tackle to Googles Chrome OS, as Microsoft announced that it will be more or less their Cloud OS for which applications can be programmable using the .NET platform. What Microsoft, in my humble opinion, has to do with Azure is, integrating into Windows as soon as possible and as good and smooth as possible. I don't think that it will be a good way to place Azure Wave as an own product next to Windows. The goal must be to merge them into one System within the next, lets say 3, full Windows Releases.
Due to the fact that more and more applications will take their way to the cloud (with the obvious advantages of being everywhere available and the obvious disadvantage of having your secret data lying on some Serverfarm somewhere nowhere), Windows will inevitably loose market share, unless they are doing the right things with the Azure Wave. They will suffer from the biggest losses on the private consumer side. More and more people will start buying Netbooks with Chrome OS or a Linux Distro. Companies will stay on Windows, what may lead Microsoft to meet the IBM destiny.
Apple, I think, won't suffer too much from Cloud Operating Systems too much. Macs and Macbooks are the premium-product class and I don't think Apple will do much to participate in lower cost classes with their Desktop - PCs and their Notebooks. Apple also has the advantage that they are more an end-user product, There are hardly any Companies that are using Mac OS as their main Operating System. But Apple also has to be careful with radical changes, as their products are, thanks to iPod and iPhone, quite widespread now and now also technically unsavier Users are now using Apples products.
Linux, my dear child, Linux, how are we all hoping for your rise and how are we all knowing that your rise, at least on desktop PCs and Notebooks, will never take really place. Their are many reasons for that and I will discuss some of them. I don't know where to start, so all reasons are in no particular order. First some words pro Linux: I like Linux, I have openSUSE running on one partition of my Notebook, and yes I admit, I really, really like it. It's great for Techies like me, you can do almost everything on a Linux System and I simply like using the mighty, mighty Shell.
Alright now to the dark side of the moon. There are countless different distributions that are offering Linux. Why that? There's only ONE company that is offering Windows and there is only ONE company that is offering Mac OS, but there are 124 that are offering Linux. How will a normal User who only wants to surf the Web, write Mails and do some scribble-scrabble in Spreadsheets and Documents know what to choose? That leads me direct to the next 2 points: There is no real Office Package standard in the Distros. OpenOffice more or less is a standard and also should be the ONE AND ONLY standard, but there is still the old stuff from the 2 different desktop engines on every Distro. Why?? Who needs 3 different Word Processors??
And wait, did I say 2 desktop engines? You have KDE and Gnome and you can choose between them. Its fun for people like me, weighing up the now not existent differences and then choosing one (I chose Gnome by the way, because it was simply cooler looking and faster at the time I set up my Linux). Hey, most normal Users don't even know what a damn desktop engine is, so why let them choose? That's useless, they are only confused. Next thing marketing. Why would ever any standard User install a different OS from that, that is running? Hey Mr. Shuttleworth and Mr. Novell CEO, if you really want to spread your Linux Distros, make some deals with those guys that build the PC's as Microsoft is doing. It's a really effective way to force Users to their luck.
The final problem is probably that the slim and fast Linux Kernel is nowadays a huge, ugly and unmaintainable Moloch. There's another problem, too many people who were working on Linux since the 80s are still leading the Development and still working on Linux with the same Tools and the same attitude, but hey, the world changed. Those guys did a fantastic job and Linux wouldn't be Linux without them, but they simply need to let it go. Linux hasn't so many Users, so there is the chance to make a complete new start without causing too many problems.
Now to Chrome OS. I said it before, and I say it again, announcing an OS is NOT innovative but I think Google will make a fantastic job on Chrome OS. Every day I am more convinced that this is going to be the perfect merging between the Web and the Desktop. Do you know why there is yet no G-Drive Online Storage from Google? Although Microsoft has its 25GB Windows Sky Drive and countless other Companies are offering Online Storage (including some really cool ones like Dropbox). G-Drive will be an essential part of and fully integrated into Chrome OS. Local storage no longer required. Everything else would make no sense.
I believe that Google is fundamentally changing the way Computers and the Web is used. Google won't take much market share from Apple, as Chrome OS is probably aimed at Netbooks, but they will steal Microsoft a part of their cake. The cool thing is, that every service Google offers is - of course - a potential Chrome OS Application. You are having your Desktop in the Web then, with a nice integration of all the Twitters and Facebooks we all like to use. No more Browser required (sorry Mozilla, but I still like you and will keep you on Mac OS). I know I sound like a cheap advertiser of Chrome OS (which I am not, otherwise I wouldn't write a Blog that no one is reading), but with Chrome OS the Desktop and the Web will be one and the same things, the borders between them are not recognisable any longer.
So to end this pretty long Post, what cool stuff will we have running in the Cloud? First, when I store my stuff in the Cloud, I want it to be safe, so Crypto Services will be essential (I hope Chrome will have that). The automatically integrated Crypto Service needs obviously be fast and safe. Next, I want to stream my music and my videos direct onto my mobile devices or my other Notebooks and PCs I use. So, there's already a service (currently invitation-only) put.io which seems to be a really hot thing. When you have only Apps on a device that is Online all the time (like the iPhone), there will be many other changes, where (useful) location based (Notebook-)Services will only be the beginning.
Final word, if you wonder why this Post is named, "The Unix Inheritance", I have to answer that I wanted to write about something entirely different first, but kept the Robert Ludlum like title (the title is still true in a broader sense, though) ;-)
Saturday, January 16, 2010
Epic Failure as a recipie for success??!!
Can Epic Failure really lead to success? I think it can and does. In this Post I will discuss how epic failure can help you being successful in the future and why failing big isn't a bad thing and sometimes just the right thing at the right time.
Two more reasons why I am writing about failing, going down and getting up again. First, in the current Issue of the Wired Magazine (18.01) are the Cover Stories (eg. The Neuroscience of Screwing up) about failing and success. And second, what is the main reason why I am writing about epic failure: I am just suffering from one myself. It doesn't matter in what I failed, I just say that it was a highly important goal I wanted to reach and I failed - what sucks.
Failing is something you simply can't avoid in your life. Some people say that life actually is only stumbling from one crisis to another - and they are right. So what should you do when you can't avoid failure?
First thing is, to include the possibility of failure in your initial plans. Don't ignore failure and never treat it as something entirely bad. Second thing is that when you failed at something, you actually learnt something, be it the thing you failed at or just something about yourself. We tend to learn less from success than we do from failure, thats a simple fact every high-paid Business Consultant will tell you.
Back to the first step you should take when you want to reach a goal: including failure in your plans and calculations. When I bought my overpriced black Moleskine Notebook, I took a green (such a positive colour) felt pen and wrote 3 big words, which mark the beginning of 3 short paragraphs: Imagine, Create, Learn. These 3 words have become a personal motto to me. These 3 words mark not only the beginning of 3 paragraphs but they mean much more. Imagining new ideas, creating and developing your ideas and learning from errors (there you have it) and successes equally.
Of course I won't keep the the full 3 paragraphs hidden from you:
Imagine your success!!
How does it look like?
How does it feel like?
Create an Environment that allows errors,
failing is ok as long as you
Learn from your errors.
Imagining your success is easy. Before you live your dreams you need to dream your dreams! Think positive in what you want to achieve and apply SMART (Specific, Measurable, Attractive, Realistic, Time-based) goals. When you start working for a goal and you think that it is unachievable and it is likely that you fail then you will fail. Imagining your success is essential for your success, it not only motivates you to reach your goal it also reminds you how good you will feel when you finally made it.
Creating an Environment that allows you to fail might be harder. The way I am doing it (and currently really applying it) is to have a Plan B. That sounds easy but it isn't. It shouldn't be any Plan B that is an unattractive and ugly option. No, it needs to be a Plan, that is almost as attractive as Plan A (if you find out after some time that it is even more attractive, there you go, then you have a new Plan A). Plan B needs also to be thought-through in advance. Not really planned yet, as you still have enough to do with Plan A but carefully thought-through and checked if it meets the SMART requirements. When you are a really careful planner then you might already have 1 or 2 options for a potential Plan C in your sleeve.
Learning from your errors is probably the hardest part. First thing you need to do when you fail is to make an exhaustive Reflexion of your work. Don't look for cheap excuses like "I was sick" or anything. Failing isn't just because of one reason. When you fail in reaching a goal, then there were several reasons not only one. Try to find the crucial points in your decision and preparation process that ultimately influenced the final outcome. Failing also allows you to reconsider your whole target. After you failed at something and before your get up to try it again, ask yourself the questions: Do I really want this? Is all the work really worth it? If your answer to both questions is a clear "Yes!!", then you should go for a second round.
When you go for a second round, you have a few advantages over the first round, because you already know the way, you gained more experience in whatever you did and you, yourself, are more mature. You already have a new Plan A (your old Plan B) and you are ready to go for it.
In order to digest my initial failure from which I still suffer ;-), I decided to develop a proper Plan B a little later. I also built a fallback-solution into my (now) Plan A which can be considered as Plan B. I already started my preparations for achieving my final goal and I found out that I like Plan B actually better than I liked Plan A, because due to the additional time that I now have, I can do a lot more things, for which it was too late when they came into my mind at the Plan A preparations.
I also see my failing as an epic failure just at the right time. When you had a lot of successes you may think that everything works automatically, which it doesn't (Yes, again a case study of myself) and you might need to do some more work to achieve your goal (What an epiphany).
Finally I want to remind you that a failure, a disaster or whatever is never a step back, but at least one step forward. Not necessarily into the right direction but obviously it was a step forward. Also keep in mind that not only taste is in the eye of the beholder but also success and failure.
- "Success is, getting up once more, than you fell down."
Two more reasons why I am writing about failing, going down and getting up again. First, in the current Issue of the Wired Magazine (18.01) are the Cover Stories (eg. The Neuroscience of Screwing up) about failing and success. And second, what is the main reason why I am writing about epic failure: I am just suffering from one myself. It doesn't matter in what I failed, I just say that it was a highly important goal I wanted to reach and I failed - what sucks.
Failing is something you simply can't avoid in your life. Some people say that life actually is only stumbling from one crisis to another - and they are right. So what should you do when you can't avoid failure?
First thing is, to include the possibility of failure in your initial plans. Don't ignore failure and never treat it as something entirely bad. Second thing is that when you failed at something, you actually learnt something, be it the thing you failed at or just something about yourself. We tend to learn less from success than we do from failure, thats a simple fact every high-paid Business Consultant will tell you.
Back to the first step you should take when you want to reach a goal: including failure in your plans and calculations. When I bought my overpriced black Moleskine Notebook, I took a green (such a positive colour) felt pen and wrote 3 big words, which mark the beginning of 3 short paragraphs: Imagine, Create, Learn. These 3 words have become a personal motto to me. These 3 words mark not only the beginning of 3 paragraphs but they mean much more. Imagining new ideas, creating and developing your ideas and learning from errors (there you have it) and successes equally.
Of course I won't keep the the full 3 paragraphs hidden from you:
Imagine your success!!
How does it look like?
How does it feel like?
Create an Environment that allows errors,
failing is ok as long as you
Learn from your errors.
Imagining your success is easy. Before you live your dreams you need to dream your dreams! Think positive in what you want to achieve and apply SMART (Specific, Measurable, Attractive, Realistic, Time-based) goals. When you start working for a goal and you think that it is unachievable and it is likely that you fail then you will fail. Imagining your success is essential for your success, it not only motivates you to reach your goal it also reminds you how good you will feel when you finally made it.
Creating an Environment that allows you to fail might be harder. The way I am doing it (and currently really applying it) is to have a Plan B. That sounds easy but it isn't. It shouldn't be any Plan B that is an unattractive and ugly option. No, it needs to be a Plan, that is almost as attractive as Plan A (if you find out after some time that it is even more attractive, there you go, then you have a new Plan A). Plan B needs also to be thought-through in advance. Not really planned yet, as you still have enough to do with Plan A but carefully thought-through and checked if it meets the SMART requirements. When you are a really careful planner then you might already have 1 or 2 options for a potential Plan C in your sleeve.
Learning from your errors is probably the hardest part. First thing you need to do when you fail is to make an exhaustive Reflexion of your work. Don't look for cheap excuses like "I was sick" or anything. Failing isn't just because of one reason. When you fail in reaching a goal, then there were several reasons not only one. Try to find the crucial points in your decision and preparation process that ultimately influenced the final outcome. Failing also allows you to reconsider your whole target. After you failed at something and before your get up to try it again, ask yourself the questions: Do I really want this? Is all the work really worth it? If your answer to both questions is a clear "Yes!!", then you should go for a second round.
When you go for a second round, you have a few advantages over the first round, because you already know the way, you gained more experience in whatever you did and you, yourself, are more mature. You already have a new Plan A (your old Plan B) and you are ready to go for it.
In order to digest my initial failure from which I still suffer ;-), I decided to develop a proper Plan B a little later. I also built a fallback-solution into my (now) Plan A which can be considered as Plan B. I already started my preparations for achieving my final goal and I found out that I like Plan B actually better than I liked Plan A, because due to the additional time that I now have, I can do a lot more things, for which it was too late when they came into my mind at the Plan A preparations.
I also see my failing as an epic failure just at the right time. When you had a lot of successes you may think that everything works automatically, which it doesn't (Yes, again a case study of myself) and you might need to do some more work to achieve your goal (What an epiphany).
Finally I want to remind you that a failure, a disaster or whatever is never a step back, but at least one step forward. Not necessarily into the right direction but obviously it was a step forward. Also keep in mind that not only taste is in the eye of the beholder but also success and failure.
- "Success is, getting up once more, than you fell down."
Saturday, January 9, 2010
A new year and yet again, a new Post
Alright, alright, due to the load of Mails and Comments I received (exactly 0) and due to the load of People that must have therefore read my Blog, I will try to be not that visionary in my Posts and Insights to attract a few more people to my Blog (Maybe its just because of the Name of the Blog that no one is reading it, but hey, I know its a stupid name, but I like Douglas Adams and I couldn't think of a better Name at the time I created the Blog...).
What will be new on my Blog is, that I finally found out how to type UPPER Case Letters, finally I know whats that 2 keys with the arrows pointing upwards are good for.
In that sense I wish my regrular readers (I hope that number exceeds 0) a good new year and will promise to regularly blog about my thoughts and ideas on the Computer Industry, specific Developments and Computer Science in general.
What will be new on my Blog is, that I finally found out how to type UPPER Case Letters, finally I know whats that 2 keys with the arrows pointing upwards are good for.
In that sense I wish my regrular readers (I hope that number exceeds 0) a good new year and will promise to regularly blog about my thoughts and ideas on the Computer Industry, specific Developments and Computer Science in general.
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